Gasoline prices in the United States have climbed for ten straight weeks, the longest unbroken streak since early 2022, and the national average has jumped by more than a dollar per gallon since the start of March 2026 alone, according to Advisor Perspectives. The surge is reviving painful memories of the $5-a-gallon summer two years ago and raising a pointed question: Could it happen again?As of mid-March 2026, the national average for regular unleaded stood at roughly $3.45 per gallon, according to Yahoo Finance. That figure has already moved higher in the days since, and analysts warn the trajectory points up, not down. For reference, the all-time record remains $5.016, set on June 14, 2022, per AAA’s national gas price tracker.The current average would need to rise roughly 45% to match that record. That sounds like a wide gap, but in 2022 prices covered similar ground in just a few months. Several analysts, including GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan, have cautioned that the national average could top $5 again if supply disruptions intensify, as Yahoo Finance reported.

What’s driving the spike

No single factor explains the run-up. Instead, several forces are hitting at once.Geopolitical turmoil and oil chokepoints. Strikes on Iran and escalating tensions near critical shipping lanes have rattled energy markets. When traders fear that even a fraction of global crude supply could be disrupted, they bid prices higher fast. That risk premium has been a persistent driver this spring, according to Yahoo Finance. The same reporting notes that earlier emergency releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve have already drawn down stockpiles, limiting Washington’s ability to repeat the massive 2022 intervention.Seasonal refinery dynamics. Every spring, refineries shut down units for maintenance and switch production to summer-blend gasoline, which is more expensive to produce but required under federal clean-air rules. AAA’s March 2026 outlook from Washington noted that crude oil had moved into the mid-$70-per-barrel range just as this seasonal squeeze began, compounding the pressure on wholesale fuel costs, as detailed in AAA’s spring forecast.Rising demand. Warmer weather and spring-break travel are pulling more drivers onto the road. In Georgia, fuel market analyst Waiters told WSAV that the combination of the summer-blend switchover and a seasonal jump in driving creates a “double hit” that pushes prices higher even in calm years. When global crude is already elevated, the effect is sharper.The lag effect. Retail pump prices trail wholesale and futures markets by days or even weeks. That means even if crude oil stabilized tomorrow, the increases already baked into the wholesale market would continue flowing through to gas stations for some time, as Yahoo Finance noted. In practical terms, the worst of the current spike may not yet be visible to drivers.

How households and businesses are feeling it

For families already stretched by elevated costs for groceries, rent, and insurance, rising fuel prices land hard. A gallon of gas is one of the most visible prices in the economy: it’s posted on signs at every intersection, and it hits bank accounts weekly rather than monthly. Yahoo Finance described the current moment as a “rude awakening” for Americans who had grown accustomed to cheaper fill-ups over the winter.Prices remain well below the June 2022 peak, but they are elevated compared with pre-pandemic norms. A historical overview from AOL Finance notes that even after dipping from the 2022 record, averages never fully returned to the sub-$3 levels that were common before 2021. For many drivers, the current climb feels less like a new crisis and more like a return to one that never fully ended.The pain extends beyond the family car. Delivery services, trucking fleets, and small businesses that depend on fuel-intensive operations face rising costs that are difficult to absorb. Some companies are passing those costs to customers; others are cutting routes or delaying purchases, according to Stateline.

What policymakers are weighing

State leaders are dusting off a familiar playbook. Several state capitals are debating temporary gas-tax holidays to give drivers short-term relief, Stateline’s Amanda Watford reported. The idea is politically appealing but comes with tradeoffs: state fuel taxes fund road repairs and transit systems, and suspending them diverts revenue at a time when infrastructure needs are growing.At the federal level, options are more constrained. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which the Biden administration tapped heavily in 2022, has been only partially refilled. Any new large-scale release would further deplete a stockpile designed for genuine supply emergencies, a point analysts have flagged as a limiting factor, per Yahoo Finance.For now, the outlook hinges on variables that are largely outside Washington’s control: whether Middle East tensions escalate or cool, how quickly refineries complete spring maintenance, and whether global crude demand from China and India continues to grow. Until those uncertainties resolve, analysts say drivers should brace for prices to keep climbing into the summer driving season.