New-vehicle sales in the United States are holding up, but the buyer mix looks very different from a decade ago. As prices and borrowing costs climb, higher earners are keeping showrooms busy while middle-income households are increasingly pushed toward older used cars or out of the market altogether.

The result is a car market that appears healthy on the surface yet is quietly redrawing who can afford a factory-fresh vehicle and who is left to stretch aging transportation a few more years.

Sales volumes steady, but forecasts flag strain

Analysts expect new-vehicle sales in 2026 to reach about 15.8 million units, reflecting a market that has largely recovered from pandemic-era shortages but is no longer expanding at its earlier pace.

That same projection of 15.8 million new vehicles sold, highlighted in a Cox Automotive forecast report, suggests that growth is being capped by market fragmentation.

A separate outlook framed the same total as 15.8 million vehicles and warned that auto sales could decline as affordability pressures push middle-class consumers out of the market, even while premium segments remain resilient.

That concern about a pullback among typical wage earners appears across industry coverage, warning that auto sales may slip as middle-class buyers retreat from new vehicles, particularly in entry-level sedans and compact crossovers.

Record prices and thinner discounts

Sticker shock is central to the divide between who can buy new and who cannot.

At the end of 2025, the average transaction price paid for a new vehicle reached an all-time high of $50,326, according to data from Cox Automotive.

Those prices have not been offset by generous discounts.

A January analysis of transaction data summarized by Kelley Blue Book found that automakers reduced incentives to protect margins, leaving buyers with some of the lowest discount levels in years.

Another industry recap noted that on the surface Average new-vehicle list prices were essentially flat year-over-year, yet that stability masked a shift toward better equipped trims and larger vehicles that keep the typical monthly payment elevated.

For a middle-income family replacing a decade-old compact car with a new crossover, the combination of high base prices, costly options, and modest rebates can turn a routine upgrade into a budget-straining decision.

Middle-income buyers step back as wealthier households dominate

The affordability squeeze is most visible in who is still signing new-car contracts.

One analysis of 2025 sales found that households earning more than $150,000 a year now buy 43% of new cars sold in the U.S., up from 30% in 2019, according to Cox Automotive data.

At the other end of the income spectrum, households making less than $75,000 annually accounted for 26% of sales last year, compared with 37% in 2019, based on a Cox Automotive analysis of S&P Global Mobility data.

Another review of the trend concluded that new cars are increasingly purchased by higher-income households as the share of buyers earning less than $100,000 continues to decline.

Keating, a veteran observer of the sector, noted that in 2019 households with income under $75,000 accounted for a much larger share of new-vehicle purchases than they do today, a shift that has turned what was once a routine purchase into a luxury for many.

Separate coverage framed this as a K-shaped pattern in which Higher income consumers continue to drive New car sales in 2025 while Avg transaction prices climb and everyday buyers are pushed toward older used vehicles or simply hold on to what they have.

Affordability crunch reshapes choices and policy debates

For families caught in the middle, the math has become unforgiving.

One consumer-focused analysis noted that U.S. new-car prices have reached record highs, pushing many middle-income buyers out of the market and contributing to forecasts of declining affordability.

Another report quoted experts at Cox Automotive who argue that growing economic inequality is driving the pushback, as job uncertainty and inflation collide with vehicles that increasingly cost as much as a small home in some regions.

Income data add context to that strain.

The median household income in the U.S. was $83,730 in 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, which means the typical family is now staring at vehicle prices that approach two thirds of annual pay before taxes.

Analysts who track shopper behavior warn that the 2026 car market will be challenging for many buyers, with rising interest costs and tight credit standards steering the best offers toward higher income buyers with strong credit while others are left to navigate older used inventory.

Policy choices are beginning to intersect with this affordability debate as well, from a temporary import duty described in a recent fact sheet to ongoing discussions about fuel economy rules and electric vehicle incentives that can raise or lower costs depending on how they are structured.

More from Fast Lane Only